Canada is on the 1800 days path to vaccinate
Canada’s vaccination is lagging. Currently, the pace is approximately 10 000–40 000 doses per day. At that pace will take “a short five years” to deliver two doses of the COVID19 vaccine to every Canadian.
Another couple of years of confinement? Maybe. Listen, “honey” ( my inner voice), someone needs to give a break to the prepaid health care system. Since they couldn’t add more beds. It’s understandable — they only had 12 months to act.
No, it’s not. And yes, it’s a gloomy reality.
How long the vaccine protects from severe infection?
According to the vaccine manufacturers, the maximum protection requires three things:
- First dose
- A booster dose within 21–28 days
- A waiting period of 5–6 weeks since the first dose
Remember, Covid vaccines will not prevent you from spreading the virus, so the vaccine’s simultaneous administration to as many people as possible is the key to success. The “protection” may be as short as five months if your body can mount an immune response to the vaccine.
People with underlying conditions, the civilized world is trying to save, often receive immunosuppressive drugs to treat chronic disease and cancer. Their immunological response to a vaccine is usually limited. Certain immunosuppressive medications may completely erase a healthy body’s ability to mount a protective response and produce antibodies.
Seroconversion rate is a proportion of people who mount an immunological response to a vaccine. Conversion depends on multiple factors, including previous, current therapies and age. With more therapies and advanced age, the rate of seroconversion is expected to drop. Some conditions are totally nullifying the seroconversion rate to any vaccine. A novel class of drugs, for example, used to treat certain types of cancers (BTK inhibitors) is known to fully blunt the ability to seroconvert after flu vaccination.
Five more years to end COVID?
FDA says the duration of vaccine-induced protection is unknown even for a healthy population, capable of seroconverting and developing antibodies. Still, it may be as short as five months. People obtaining the vaccine in January 2021 may need to be revaccinated in Fall 2021. A remote scenario for Canada. The country is aiming to vaccinate for the first time by the end of 2021. With this pace, in 1000 days, over 17.6 mils of Canadians are still waiting to get the first pass of vaccination from Covid19.
Why is Canada changing the rules of the administration of the vaccine?
The shortage of vaccine dosage inspired a troubling rule in Quebec. Yes — the decision is to postpone the second booster for 90 days or longer. Two seasoned MDs, I asked, said “Do not even get me started”. But others like Gaston De Serres, M.D., Ph.D. from the Institut National de Santé Publique du Québec, Quebec City, QC, Canada publish a letter to the editor of a prestigious medical journal claiming the opposite. Yes, it does look politically motivated and purely driven by a scarce supply of vaccines. The manufacturer recommends 21–28 days. Quebec is stretching the bare minimum doses available against current scientific knowledge recommended by the vaccine manufacturer. The schedule modification diminishes or possibly abolishes the modest protection that the vaccine is declared to produce.
Israeli scientists published a compelling analysis questioning the efficacy of one dose vaccination based on real-world data. Pfizer previously published the first dose vaccine’s effectiveness around 80% in protecting people from severe infection. However, the recently published data challenge the efficacy of a single dose as 50% instead of 80%. Following the rules by drugmakers has never been so important.
According to official data, only 1,68% of Canadians have received at least one novel vaccine dose as of January 2021. A simple extrapolation of that data allows us to expect that every Canadian will indeed receive two promised doses by the end of 2026.